Post by sands on Nov 8, 2009 21:13:04 GMT -5
Slanders and Speculations - The Prophet’s Precognitions:
Well, here it is folks, the granddaddy of them all. Saturday, November 14th is in sight and teams across the country are getting psyched up and spiked up for what is the most exciting race of the year: the CIS Cross-Country Champs. We don’t want to build this race up anymore than it needs to be, but it has to be mentioned that both fields this year are very, very deep. Clearly, there is a strong team favourite on each side, but there are 12 or 13 high level men’s and women’s teams behind tham. On the women’s side, there is lots of depth with 10 teams who have top 5 ability. On the men’s side the picture is clear through 2, and then all hell breaks loose with at least 4 others who are battling for the last medal, and 5 more who could squeak into the top 6 if things go well. It’s going to be a fantastic day at Fort Henry, and with Lakins in charge there is no doubt the 2009 championships will be a classy affair. The course at Fort Henry has been fast and beautiful a few times in November, but a betting man would be safe to assume it’s going to be ugly in K-town. Boys and girls, eat your Wheaties; it’s time for OT.
Women:
1. Guelph: As if to prove that they could win OU’s with one hand tied behind their back, the Gryphons dominated last weekend without their star runner. We’re still hoping to see a Carson-Brown show down at CI’s, but we saw this weekend that the team title should be secured whether or not she runs. The Gryphons could have won this weekend, even if they’d scored their 3 through 7 runners. This was their 6th OUA team title in a row, and this Saturday they will be looking for their 5th consecutive CIS title. Obviously the loss of Carson hurts this squad, and if she’s out of CIS then there is a slim chance another team can get close. However, Mac is the best bet right now and they were a ways off at OUAs. 5 girls in the top 10 in the OUA with the fifth runner beating 2008 AC’s means this team is a shoe in for the title.
2. McMaster: Pearo had a strong run this weekend, claiming a rare spot amongst Guelph’s top five. The rest of the Mac women were not far behind, all finishing in the top 20. Their fifth scorer ran 18:46, and another effort like that will mean this team has 5 runners in the top 30, characteristic of most silver medal winning teams at CIS. With Toronto failing to show up, Mac had this OUA silver handed to them; look for a more hotly contested battle at CIs, with teams from East and West fighting for podium spots. This squad hasn’t shown any weaknesses yet, and it appears their OUA race was their best team effort of the season. If they can continue that trend, they will more than likely be rewarded with some silver, although it’s tight enough between teams 2-7 that an off day from the Marauders will knock them off the podium.
3. Toronto: Great runs by Brown and McClure took the top two spots at OUAs this weekend. Brown was dominant, well clear of the field, and it was a very strong run by McClure to hold off the pack of Gryphons. But, after these two there was a substantial gap. Granted, U of T should have a better team than this for CIs. Once Gollish returns, and if Jewett returns, they will be much stronger than the team we saw this past weekend. But we’ve been saying this all year: if Toronto can’t get someone to step up and give them a strong fifth, they won’t be able to compete with the Gryphons. This ranking assumes Jewett runs; if she doesn’t, a betting man can slot this team in at 6th or 7th. Last year’s 5th place finisher and ROY will be relied upon to get RR’s Blues onto the podium for the second straight year.
4. Calgary : Although they didn’t win Stewart Cup, we think that the Dinos have more upside than the Pandas and Bisons. They sat Fenton, their top runner, so that’s an obvious gain once she’s back in action. Also, they put four runners in front of Albert’s third. Bring Fenton back into the mix, and that’s five runners in front of Alberta’s third. Conclusion: enjoy your Stewart Cup victory, Alberta; you won’t be CanWest champions two weeks from now. From a national perspective, this team wasn’t impressive last weekend, as their 2-5 runners were more than a minute behind the leaders at Stewart Cup. That is enough to move them a notch below the Toronto and McMaster level. Unless they have that 2-5 group step-up there won’t be 7 cowgirl hats on the CIS awards stage on Saturday. Add Fenton in, and the Dinos’ results at conference look very similar to the X-Women’s; both teams are in a great position, but need to make some gains to take the bronze. Mac appears to be a step ahead of the Dinos, but they should be battling with X, Laval, and maybe Toronto for the final podium spot.
5. X: It’s very hard to know what happened at AUS. The X-women were pretty far back of Ryer of St. Mary’s, although they might not have been going 100%. If Chisholm is smart, which we think he is, he may have told his squad to run just hard enough to win the AUS title. They also sat a few athletes from their usual top 5, but this squad only has one girl capable of a low-stick finish, similar to Calgary. To be a medal team, a squad usually needs to get at least 2 athletes in the top 15, something that X seems to be lacking. If they can get a big run from their 2 or 3 athletes, this squad stands a chance at moving up. X’s 2-6 runners are all very close, which gives them a great opportunity to work together (as they have been all season). But that’s no use if their pack isn’t fast enough. At CI’s, one or two of these ladies will have to strike out from the pack and make a bid for a finish in the teens. A strong 6th gives them some room for error, so the X-Women needn’t be afraid to go after it. This team is close to the podium; a few calculated risks could get them there.
6. Laval: A very good front three gives this team a great shot at sneaking onto the podium this weekend. Cormier showed fantastic shape by running away with the QSSF title, and her teammates Fortin and Letourneau backed her up very well with what appears to be top 25 fitness. That’s a great front 3; however, the 4-5 are another minute in arrears and are going to need to get better. That minute over a 5km will be full of OUA and CanWest athletes, who will cause Laval’s score to rise to heights not deemed eligible for the podium. In the women’s race, the 30s, 40s, and 50s are packed in very tight, and Laval’s team fate is going to be determined by how far into this pack their later scorers can get. A team podium will be theirs if Pichard-Jolicoeur and Dumont can have a breakthrough performance and get down to 19 flat or so.
7. Queen’s: Bolton and Dunbar appear to be teaching the same lessons to the women that they are to the men, as this group had a fantastic pack-run at OUAs that was rewarded with a third place finish. Roney ran 18:35 as their first runner, and their sixth came in at 19:01. That’s some pretty awesome depth and should assure this team of a finish well inside the top 10. The beauty of this squad is that if they can get that pack going just 10 seconds faster they will take nearly 40 points off their team score. That kind of decrease in points would be enough for a type 5 finish on the home course. Similarly, one athlete making a big step and getting into the AC mix will also so help this squad’s chances. On the flip side, the reason this team isn’t battling with the 4 teams directly ahead of them is because they lack the low-stick. They’re strong enough to pick off some of the teams above them, if those teams make mistakes. But, unlike the 3-6 teams, they’re not ready to make a serious bid for the podium. Queen’s hasn’t seen a women’s squad this good since Lakins’ glory days of 2003 when they took silver. We’ll see if Bolton can fire his squad up enough to make their presence felt.
8. UVic: Some impressive results from the Vikes at BCs, although it’s hard to decipher just how impressive. In the Sr. race, this squad had three girls come in at 22:25 to 22:40 for 6km. Their top runner a few weeks ago, Moran, didn’t run at BCs. If you throw her in that pack, the Vikes likely have 4 who can get into the top 35. Their junior star Therrien ran 18:16 and provides the final piece to the puzzle for this squad. A few other names from this team were DNS at BCs, although knowing the Vikes’ style they are probably just resting up for the Dance. This squad may be able to repeat if not improve upon last year’s 6th place finish. We see it being between the Dinos and Vikes for the CanWest title. The result of that match-up also determining what team will close out the top 6 in the country. For now, the Vikes get a low ranking, because they don’t run against other CIS schools; this makes our job difficult, and we resent that.
9. Alberta: Props to this squad for the Stewart Cup title, although we’re sure they are aware that the one that matters is this Saturday. Acheson had a great run at Stewart Cup running 18:12. Degaust ran capably as the number two, while the Soderberg’s also had fine runs with near 19 minute efforts. This team is good, but they need to be great to be any higher than 9th this year. The teams in front of them are all very strong. There isn’t anything negative that can be said about this team; they’re pretty solid across the board. The addition of 2-time first-team AC Findlay would help them tremendously. If she’s racing this weekend, we say watch out for Alberta. If she’s not, we like them for 9th.
10. Windsor: A great run by Dayna Pidhoresky for 6th at OU’s was a step forward for the Lady Lancers. Raeleen Hunter’s 16th was another fine performance. But then, before Windsor could get their third runner in, Queen’s had six across the line. Two good runners at the front should get this team into the top ten, but a cross country team without depth can’t go far. Windsor may sneak past a few teams ranked above them if things go wrong for those teams, but the Lancers don’t have the horses to get up much higher than 10th.
Teams left off with a chance to upset:
Dalhousie: Al Yarrrrr!
‘Toba: A good front end, but lacking depth. Can they get Tessmann and Barrett to step up? There’s a lot of points there for the taking, if they do.
UWO: It was a tough day for the Mustangs at OU’s. Can they pull themselves back together for CI’s? They’ve been a top ten team all season, but will they be there when it counts?
Individuals:
Tier 1: Brown, Jewett, Carson, McClure, Cliff, Bruckschwaiger, Souter, Cormier, Ryer
Tier 2: Laurie, Lalonde, Pidhoresky, Pearo, Belanger, Fortin, Schlosser
Tier 3: Fenton, Acheson, Gregoire, Mockler, Furtado, Preibischova
Individual Champion: This should be a battle between Carson and Brown, but with Carson hurt and potentially not running, Brown takes it hands down. Cormier (Laval) could challenge her, but we’re pretty sure Brown will win her third individual title.
Darkhorse: Souter
ROY: Lalonde of Guelph was 4th at OUAs and will probably be top 10 at CIS.
Men:
1. Guelph: Was there ever any doubt? We’ve been building this team up all season long and they delivered at OUAs. 1, 2, 3, 5, 6. Are you kidding me? I guess the whole OUA owes Dave Weston a beer for stopping the clean sweep. The top three on this squad are all title-threats in Kingston, while emerging star John Parrott and vet Nigel Wray will also be battling for first-team honours. Too bad Hinton didn’t get a shot at the OUA ROY, although I guess DST is trying to be generous by letting other schools have a shot at awards. We’ll take this opportunity to give a shout out to Nixon of Lakehead for his ROY run and his coach, Kip Sigsworth, for preparing him so well. Coming back to Guelph, we feel like we’ve said everything that can be said. They are going to win, and they are probably going to beat the field at CIS. Two questions remain to be answered: Will they sweep the individual podium? And will Hinton get a shot at CIS ROY?
2. Windsor: This team was a very comfortable second at OUAs without the services of Meyer and Sinclair. With those two back in the line-up, Windsor will have the edge on X on the 14th. Weston ran tough at OUAs, as did Aguanno. Keller ran like the savvy vet he is, picking people off in the last 5km to finish in a very solid 8th. The top three for Windsor will need to match X’s top three. The advantage for the Lancers comes from the fact that they have 5 or even 6 guys who are capable of matching up with the top 3 X-men, and that means they will have plenty of breathing room at the big dance. We’d love to see this squad give Guelph at least a bit of scare but, now more than ever, it seems virtually impossible for the Gryphs to lose.
3. X: These guys put on a clinic at the AUS meet and have three runners at the front who will be battling for AC honours. Gerych is ready to bust one, McCarron is fit, and Doubrovsky is rockin’ once more. Based on the results, we think that X took it fairly easy, had a nice little pack run at the AUS meet, and has more in the tank for CIS. This team could perhaps be the 2nd team in the field with three runners in; however, they need to shore up the back end a bit more if they are going to hang on to 2nd. Addison ran well, maybe even saving something for Kingston, but Corbitt was a ways back and puts the only damper on an otherwise flawless performance at Point Pleasant. If Corbitt can get it rolling, this team has a good shot at taking down the Lancers for 2nd. But who can predict what Corbitt will do? X doesn’t need Windsor to make any mistakes, but they need all five of their scorers to have big runs on the day. Even for the best coaches, there’s an element of luck in that proposition. Are you feeling lucky, Bernie?
4. Regina: Wiebe is FIT. All signs are telling us that Wiebe is one of the men to beat at CIS. He dominated the field at Stewart Cup, beating his teammate and potential AC Wyatt Baiton by over a minute. That’s nasty. Baiton had a great run, especially for a rookie, with his 2nd place finish. Fyfe is getting better every week and gave Regina three guys in the top 5 out west. That’s a very good start, and with Dale Wig performing like a top 30 guy this team is in a great spot through 4. The regular 5-man for the Cougars was out at Stewart Cup, but apparently Ben-jamin’ will be back and ready to go for CIS. This team needs him badly as a 37 minute guy in a scoring position will push Regina way down the list. Regina is in the medal hunt, especially if they can get a great run from their fifth man.
5. UVic: This team is almost identical to last year’s squad, with a great front 3 and question marks for their 4th and 5th scorers. Pieterson is a top 7 guy after running 31:12 at BCs. Mallie is in good shape and is an athlete who usually brings his best at the big races. The improvement of Cliff Childs over the last month is helping this team and makes them another group that is sniffing at the podium. Childs brings his best when it matters and may end up being an AC. Clouthier and Irvine had good runs at BCs, but one wonders how well these young guns will fare with the pressure of a national championship on the line. The story of the day at BCs for the Vikes was Tom Fleming, who ran 32:32 and was only 30 seconds back of Childs. He needs to reproduce that in Kingston; if he does, this team can win the bronze. However, this squad is in a precarious position where one bad run will result in a big slide down the results page.
6. Queen’s: This team put on a pack-running clinic at OUAs. Hulse took Patterson and Courchene for a ride, and Captain Walmsley carried Nishiyama and Potvin as far they could go. This team got it done on the day and now enters CIS as a potential upset team. They are relatively young and inexperienced, with only 3 of the top 7 having CIS experience. They may just be naïve enough to ignore the pressure of a home CIS meet and run out of their minds. On paper, this team has no business beating Toronto - they were just 6th in the OUA last year - but they did just that. History doesn’t lie: the last time the third place OUA team wasn’t top 6 was way back in 2004. That seems like a good goal for this group. The one thing holding them back from a medal is not having an AC type of guy. Hulse has the pedigree for that type of performance, but 12th at OUAs doesn’t get you top 14 at CIS. If he can step it up like he has in the past (see 2008 CIS track) and if Patterson can follow suit, this team can start to dream about a trip to the stage.
7. Sherbrooke: Baghdad Rachem dominated at QSSF, although we wouldn’t bet on him for the individual title at CIS due to his racing schedule this fall. A half-marathon the weekend before the QSSF meet means he’ll probably be gassed come the 4th loop at the Fort. As Deng Mariel explained, when asked how he had made such improvements as an XC runner, “I stopped running half marathons during the season.” Sage advice. Rachem’s a great runner, but a man’s got to know his limitations. JPC has been getting better and better and knows what it takes to be top 10, as he’s done it before (though there have been some ups and downs in this guy’s running over the last few years). Buzingo is back and in his usual form, and his addition helps this squad’s chances. This group has the top end necessary to be on the podium and, like X and Regina, is relying on its later scorers to step up and get it done. Gahumgu and Day rounded out the top 5 at QSSF, and if they can improve their performance level, this team will be in the top 5. However, an off day will result in this team adding enough points on that they will be eaten up by the group of teams right behind them.
8. Toronto: Del Monte ran well at OUAs, getting after it with the lead pack, a strategy that will probably benefit him on the Fort Henry course where letting a gap go early can ruin one’s race. It’s a course where getting out where you want to finish is absolutely necessary. When the winds start howling and the course gets chewed up, the even-pace strategy almost never works. Douglas ran well, although being a fifth year guy he’ll probably run even better at CIS when the heat is on. Pavelic and Nicholl ran admirably in the absence of usual 3-4 men, Lambert and Pettes. This team is still a question mark, as it has been all season. Pettes and Lambert have the ability to be much higher than they were at OUAs, and so does Murray-Lawson. However, unless 2 of these 3 can step up, the Varsity Blues will be light years away from a medal, and battling just to stay in the top 10. Consider this your wake-up call, Blues.
9. Calgary: Cloutier has given Calgary a boost in the last few weeks, proving to be a strong front-man with AC potential. Pootz and Nicol are back in business after great runs at Stewart Cup and now complete a strong top 3 for the Dinos. The problem with this team is that they had a minute gap back to Russell and Dorosz in the 4 and 5 spots. That’s okay if the third man is a top 10 guy, but Nichol doesn’t appear to be at that level. He’s more like a 30th place guy, which means Calgary is probably going to be scoring two guys in the 50s. That pushes them out of the medal picture and into the mid-level top 10 picture. As we’ve said before, this team has shown in the past that they run well at the show, and if they can do that again this year, they will be looking at as high as a 6th place finish. After UVic, there is a cluster of teams that are going to be very close on Saturday.
10. Alberta: Finally, we see where this team stands. They had a good run at Stewart Cup, although probably not what they were hoping. The West is strong this year, and this team comes into CIS as the number 4 ranked CanWest team. Weikum, Ostapowich, and Leboeuf need to pack run and get into the top 20 if this squad wants to be top 5. Carver stepped up at Stewart cup and gave Da Bears another guy capable of a good placing, but the fifth man was way too far back. Some of their usual suspects ran uncharacteristically slow at Stewart Cup, so if everything is okay health-wise, this team has the potential to pull a few upsets. The 6-11 teams are incredibly tight; a team like UWO, who we have 11th right now, can actually move up to 6th or 7th if they get some great runs. Conversely, if a group like Alberta has an off day, they can very easily drop right out of the top ten.
Teams left off with a chance to upset:
Mac: On the surface, their OUA performance looked bad; however, Yorke had a bad day. With him up to his usual form, this team actually could’ve been 3rd in the conference. A big day from a couple of athletes and Mac could move well into the top 10.
UWO: Not a great day at OUAs, although O’Neil appears due for another AC run. This squad was just off of Toronto and Queen’s, although their performances are trending down. If this squad can do the unthinkable and actually run better at CIS than the Western International, they too, can move into the top 10. Guelph should watch out for brash, young Brent Smith during the opening kilometer.
Concordia: This squad has been getting better each year and is led by CIS ROY hopeful Colle. He was a DNS at QSSF, but his early season form indicates he’s got the ability to be an AC. Noel-Hodge looks like a top 25 guy and could help lead this squad to a top 10.
Individuals:
Tier 1: Christie, Pieterson, Wiebe, Baghdad, Brunsting, Boorsma, Brett
Tier 2: Weston, Gerych, Doubravsky, Parrott, Wray, Poulin-Cadavius
Tier 3: McCarron, Mallie, O’Neil, Baiton, Cloutier, Childs, Marin, Snider, Del Monte, Keller, Colle
Individual Champion: This is a very hard pick, especially with so many Guelph guys up at the top which gives them an advantage, but we are calling a three-way battle between Wiebe, Brunsting, and Boorsma. Boorsma is probably the most talented of the bunch, so we give him a nod for the win.
Darkhorse: Gerych
ROY: Colle, Baiton, and Nixon are the top candidates. Baiton will take it. Without having ever seen him run, we’re guessing that he’s a mudder, something that will likely come in handy at the Fort.
Well, here it is folks, the granddaddy of them all. Saturday, November 14th is in sight and teams across the country are getting psyched up and spiked up for what is the most exciting race of the year: the CIS Cross-Country Champs. We don’t want to build this race up anymore than it needs to be, but it has to be mentioned that both fields this year are very, very deep. Clearly, there is a strong team favourite on each side, but there are 12 or 13 high level men’s and women’s teams behind tham. On the women’s side, there is lots of depth with 10 teams who have top 5 ability. On the men’s side the picture is clear through 2, and then all hell breaks loose with at least 4 others who are battling for the last medal, and 5 more who could squeak into the top 6 if things go well. It’s going to be a fantastic day at Fort Henry, and with Lakins in charge there is no doubt the 2009 championships will be a classy affair. The course at Fort Henry has been fast and beautiful a few times in November, but a betting man would be safe to assume it’s going to be ugly in K-town. Boys and girls, eat your Wheaties; it’s time for OT.
Women:
1. Guelph: As if to prove that they could win OU’s with one hand tied behind their back, the Gryphons dominated last weekend without their star runner. We’re still hoping to see a Carson-Brown show down at CI’s, but we saw this weekend that the team title should be secured whether or not she runs. The Gryphons could have won this weekend, even if they’d scored their 3 through 7 runners. This was their 6th OUA team title in a row, and this Saturday they will be looking for their 5th consecutive CIS title. Obviously the loss of Carson hurts this squad, and if she’s out of CIS then there is a slim chance another team can get close. However, Mac is the best bet right now and they were a ways off at OUAs. 5 girls in the top 10 in the OUA with the fifth runner beating 2008 AC’s means this team is a shoe in for the title.
2. McMaster: Pearo had a strong run this weekend, claiming a rare spot amongst Guelph’s top five. The rest of the Mac women were not far behind, all finishing in the top 20. Their fifth scorer ran 18:46, and another effort like that will mean this team has 5 runners in the top 30, characteristic of most silver medal winning teams at CIS. With Toronto failing to show up, Mac had this OUA silver handed to them; look for a more hotly contested battle at CIs, with teams from East and West fighting for podium spots. This squad hasn’t shown any weaknesses yet, and it appears their OUA race was their best team effort of the season. If they can continue that trend, they will more than likely be rewarded with some silver, although it’s tight enough between teams 2-7 that an off day from the Marauders will knock them off the podium.
3. Toronto: Great runs by Brown and McClure took the top two spots at OUAs this weekend. Brown was dominant, well clear of the field, and it was a very strong run by McClure to hold off the pack of Gryphons. But, after these two there was a substantial gap. Granted, U of T should have a better team than this for CIs. Once Gollish returns, and if Jewett returns, they will be much stronger than the team we saw this past weekend. But we’ve been saying this all year: if Toronto can’t get someone to step up and give them a strong fifth, they won’t be able to compete with the Gryphons. This ranking assumes Jewett runs; if she doesn’t, a betting man can slot this team in at 6th or 7th. Last year’s 5th place finisher and ROY will be relied upon to get RR’s Blues onto the podium for the second straight year.
4. Calgary : Although they didn’t win Stewart Cup, we think that the Dinos have more upside than the Pandas and Bisons. They sat Fenton, their top runner, so that’s an obvious gain once she’s back in action. Also, they put four runners in front of Albert’s third. Bring Fenton back into the mix, and that’s five runners in front of Alberta’s third. Conclusion: enjoy your Stewart Cup victory, Alberta; you won’t be CanWest champions two weeks from now. From a national perspective, this team wasn’t impressive last weekend, as their 2-5 runners were more than a minute behind the leaders at Stewart Cup. That is enough to move them a notch below the Toronto and McMaster level. Unless they have that 2-5 group step-up there won’t be 7 cowgirl hats on the CIS awards stage on Saturday. Add Fenton in, and the Dinos’ results at conference look very similar to the X-Women’s; both teams are in a great position, but need to make some gains to take the bronze. Mac appears to be a step ahead of the Dinos, but they should be battling with X, Laval, and maybe Toronto for the final podium spot.
5. X: It’s very hard to know what happened at AUS. The X-women were pretty far back of Ryer of St. Mary’s, although they might not have been going 100%. If Chisholm is smart, which we think he is, he may have told his squad to run just hard enough to win the AUS title. They also sat a few athletes from their usual top 5, but this squad only has one girl capable of a low-stick finish, similar to Calgary. To be a medal team, a squad usually needs to get at least 2 athletes in the top 15, something that X seems to be lacking. If they can get a big run from their 2 or 3 athletes, this squad stands a chance at moving up. X’s 2-6 runners are all very close, which gives them a great opportunity to work together (as they have been all season). But that’s no use if their pack isn’t fast enough. At CI’s, one or two of these ladies will have to strike out from the pack and make a bid for a finish in the teens. A strong 6th gives them some room for error, so the X-Women needn’t be afraid to go after it. This team is close to the podium; a few calculated risks could get them there.
6. Laval: A very good front three gives this team a great shot at sneaking onto the podium this weekend. Cormier showed fantastic shape by running away with the QSSF title, and her teammates Fortin and Letourneau backed her up very well with what appears to be top 25 fitness. That’s a great front 3; however, the 4-5 are another minute in arrears and are going to need to get better. That minute over a 5km will be full of OUA and CanWest athletes, who will cause Laval’s score to rise to heights not deemed eligible for the podium. In the women’s race, the 30s, 40s, and 50s are packed in very tight, and Laval’s team fate is going to be determined by how far into this pack their later scorers can get. A team podium will be theirs if Pichard-Jolicoeur and Dumont can have a breakthrough performance and get down to 19 flat or so.
7. Queen’s: Bolton and Dunbar appear to be teaching the same lessons to the women that they are to the men, as this group had a fantastic pack-run at OUAs that was rewarded with a third place finish. Roney ran 18:35 as their first runner, and their sixth came in at 19:01. That’s some pretty awesome depth and should assure this team of a finish well inside the top 10. The beauty of this squad is that if they can get that pack going just 10 seconds faster they will take nearly 40 points off their team score. That kind of decrease in points would be enough for a type 5 finish on the home course. Similarly, one athlete making a big step and getting into the AC mix will also so help this squad’s chances. On the flip side, the reason this team isn’t battling with the 4 teams directly ahead of them is because they lack the low-stick. They’re strong enough to pick off some of the teams above them, if those teams make mistakes. But, unlike the 3-6 teams, they’re not ready to make a serious bid for the podium. Queen’s hasn’t seen a women’s squad this good since Lakins’ glory days of 2003 when they took silver. We’ll see if Bolton can fire his squad up enough to make their presence felt.
8. UVic: Some impressive results from the Vikes at BCs, although it’s hard to decipher just how impressive. In the Sr. race, this squad had three girls come in at 22:25 to 22:40 for 6km. Their top runner a few weeks ago, Moran, didn’t run at BCs. If you throw her in that pack, the Vikes likely have 4 who can get into the top 35. Their junior star Therrien ran 18:16 and provides the final piece to the puzzle for this squad. A few other names from this team were DNS at BCs, although knowing the Vikes’ style they are probably just resting up for the Dance. This squad may be able to repeat if not improve upon last year’s 6th place finish. We see it being between the Dinos and Vikes for the CanWest title. The result of that match-up also determining what team will close out the top 6 in the country. For now, the Vikes get a low ranking, because they don’t run against other CIS schools; this makes our job difficult, and we resent that.
9. Alberta: Props to this squad for the Stewart Cup title, although we’re sure they are aware that the one that matters is this Saturday. Acheson had a great run at Stewart Cup running 18:12. Degaust ran capably as the number two, while the Soderberg’s also had fine runs with near 19 minute efforts. This team is good, but they need to be great to be any higher than 9th this year. The teams in front of them are all very strong. There isn’t anything negative that can be said about this team; they’re pretty solid across the board. The addition of 2-time first-team AC Findlay would help them tremendously. If she’s racing this weekend, we say watch out for Alberta. If she’s not, we like them for 9th.
10. Windsor: A great run by Dayna Pidhoresky for 6th at OU’s was a step forward for the Lady Lancers. Raeleen Hunter’s 16th was another fine performance. But then, before Windsor could get their third runner in, Queen’s had six across the line. Two good runners at the front should get this team into the top ten, but a cross country team without depth can’t go far. Windsor may sneak past a few teams ranked above them if things go wrong for those teams, but the Lancers don’t have the horses to get up much higher than 10th.
Teams left off with a chance to upset:
Dalhousie: Al Yarrrrr!
‘Toba: A good front end, but lacking depth. Can they get Tessmann and Barrett to step up? There’s a lot of points there for the taking, if they do.
UWO: It was a tough day for the Mustangs at OU’s. Can they pull themselves back together for CI’s? They’ve been a top ten team all season, but will they be there when it counts?
Individuals:
Tier 1: Brown, Jewett, Carson, McClure, Cliff, Bruckschwaiger, Souter, Cormier, Ryer
Tier 2: Laurie, Lalonde, Pidhoresky, Pearo, Belanger, Fortin, Schlosser
Tier 3: Fenton, Acheson, Gregoire, Mockler, Furtado, Preibischova
Individual Champion: This should be a battle between Carson and Brown, but with Carson hurt and potentially not running, Brown takes it hands down. Cormier (Laval) could challenge her, but we’re pretty sure Brown will win her third individual title.
Darkhorse: Souter
ROY: Lalonde of Guelph was 4th at OUAs and will probably be top 10 at CIS.
Men:
1. Guelph: Was there ever any doubt? We’ve been building this team up all season long and they delivered at OUAs. 1, 2, 3, 5, 6. Are you kidding me? I guess the whole OUA owes Dave Weston a beer for stopping the clean sweep. The top three on this squad are all title-threats in Kingston, while emerging star John Parrott and vet Nigel Wray will also be battling for first-team honours. Too bad Hinton didn’t get a shot at the OUA ROY, although I guess DST is trying to be generous by letting other schools have a shot at awards. We’ll take this opportunity to give a shout out to Nixon of Lakehead for his ROY run and his coach, Kip Sigsworth, for preparing him so well. Coming back to Guelph, we feel like we’ve said everything that can be said. They are going to win, and they are probably going to beat the field at CIS. Two questions remain to be answered: Will they sweep the individual podium? And will Hinton get a shot at CIS ROY?
2. Windsor: This team was a very comfortable second at OUAs without the services of Meyer and Sinclair. With those two back in the line-up, Windsor will have the edge on X on the 14th. Weston ran tough at OUAs, as did Aguanno. Keller ran like the savvy vet he is, picking people off in the last 5km to finish in a very solid 8th. The top three for Windsor will need to match X’s top three. The advantage for the Lancers comes from the fact that they have 5 or even 6 guys who are capable of matching up with the top 3 X-men, and that means they will have plenty of breathing room at the big dance. We’d love to see this squad give Guelph at least a bit of scare but, now more than ever, it seems virtually impossible for the Gryphs to lose.
3. X: These guys put on a clinic at the AUS meet and have three runners at the front who will be battling for AC honours. Gerych is ready to bust one, McCarron is fit, and Doubrovsky is rockin’ once more. Based on the results, we think that X took it fairly easy, had a nice little pack run at the AUS meet, and has more in the tank for CIS. This team could perhaps be the 2nd team in the field with three runners in; however, they need to shore up the back end a bit more if they are going to hang on to 2nd. Addison ran well, maybe even saving something for Kingston, but Corbitt was a ways back and puts the only damper on an otherwise flawless performance at Point Pleasant. If Corbitt can get it rolling, this team has a good shot at taking down the Lancers for 2nd. But who can predict what Corbitt will do? X doesn’t need Windsor to make any mistakes, but they need all five of their scorers to have big runs on the day. Even for the best coaches, there’s an element of luck in that proposition. Are you feeling lucky, Bernie?
4. Regina: Wiebe is FIT. All signs are telling us that Wiebe is one of the men to beat at CIS. He dominated the field at Stewart Cup, beating his teammate and potential AC Wyatt Baiton by over a minute. That’s nasty. Baiton had a great run, especially for a rookie, with his 2nd place finish. Fyfe is getting better every week and gave Regina three guys in the top 5 out west. That’s a very good start, and with Dale Wig performing like a top 30 guy this team is in a great spot through 4. The regular 5-man for the Cougars was out at Stewart Cup, but apparently Ben-jamin’ will be back and ready to go for CIS. This team needs him badly as a 37 minute guy in a scoring position will push Regina way down the list. Regina is in the medal hunt, especially if they can get a great run from their fifth man.
5. UVic: This team is almost identical to last year’s squad, with a great front 3 and question marks for their 4th and 5th scorers. Pieterson is a top 7 guy after running 31:12 at BCs. Mallie is in good shape and is an athlete who usually brings his best at the big races. The improvement of Cliff Childs over the last month is helping this team and makes them another group that is sniffing at the podium. Childs brings his best when it matters and may end up being an AC. Clouthier and Irvine had good runs at BCs, but one wonders how well these young guns will fare with the pressure of a national championship on the line. The story of the day at BCs for the Vikes was Tom Fleming, who ran 32:32 and was only 30 seconds back of Childs. He needs to reproduce that in Kingston; if he does, this team can win the bronze. However, this squad is in a precarious position where one bad run will result in a big slide down the results page.
6. Queen’s: This team put on a pack-running clinic at OUAs. Hulse took Patterson and Courchene for a ride, and Captain Walmsley carried Nishiyama and Potvin as far they could go. This team got it done on the day and now enters CIS as a potential upset team. They are relatively young and inexperienced, with only 3 of the top 7 having CIS experience. They may just be naïve enough to ignore the pressure of a home CIS meet and run out of their minds. On paper, this team has no business beating Toronto - they were just 6th in the OUA last year - but they did just that. History doesn’t lie: the last time the third place OUA team wasn’t top 6 was way back in 2004. That seems like a good goal for this group. The one thing holding them back from a medal is not having an AC type of guy. Hulse has the pedigree for that type of performance, but 12th at OUAs doesn’t get you top 14 at CIS. If he can step it up like he has in the past (see 2008 CIS track) and if Patterson can follow suit, this team can start to dream about a trip to the stage.
7. Sherbrooke: Baghdad Rachem dominated at QSSF, although we wouldn’t bet on him for the individual title at CIS due to his racing schedule this fall. A half-marathon the weekend before the QSSF meet means he’ll probably be gassed come the 4th loop at the Fort. As Deng Mariel explained, when asked how he had made such improvements as an XC runner, “I stopped running half marathons during the season.” Sage advice. Rachem’s a great runner, but a man’s got to know his limitations. JPC has been getting better and better and knows what it takes to be top 10, as he’s done it before (though there have been some ups and downs in this guy’s running over the last few years). Buzingo is back and in his usual form, and his addition helps this squad’s chances. This group has the top end necessary to be on the podium and, like X and Regina, is relying on its later scorers to step up and get it done. Gahumgu and Day rounded out the top 5 at QSSF, and if they can improve their performance level, this team will be in the top 5. However, an off day will result in this team adding enough points on that they will be eaten up by the group of teams right behind them.
8. Toronto: Del Monte ran well at OUAs, getting after it with the lead pack, a strategy that will probably benefit him on the Fort Henry course where letting a gap go early can ruin one’s race. It’s a course where getting out where you want to finish is absolutely necessary. When the winds start howling and the course gets chewed up, the even-pace strategy almost never works. Douglas ran well, although being a fifth year guy he’ll probably run even better at CIS when the heat is on. Pavelic and Nicholl ran admirably in the absence of usual 3-4 men, Lambert and Pettes. This team is still a question mark, as it has been all season. Pettes and Lambert have the ability to be much higher than they were at OUAs, and so does Murray-Lawson. However, unless 2 of these 3 can step up, the Varsity Blues will be light years away from a medal, and battling just to stay in the top 10. Consider this your wake-up call, Blues.
9. Calgary: Cloutier has given Calgary a boost in the last few weeks, proving to be a strong front-man with AC potential. Pootz and Nicol are back in business after great runs at Stewart Cup and now complete a strong top 3 for the Dinos. The problem with this team is that they had a minute gap back to Russell and Dorosz in the 4 and 5 spots. That’s okay if the third man is a top 10 guy, but Nichol doesn’t appear to be at that level. He’s more like a 30th place guy, which means Calgary is probably going to be scoring two guys in the 50s. That pushes them out of the medal picture and into the mid-level top 10 picture. As we’ve said before, this team has shown in the past that they run well at the show, and if they can do that again this year, they will be looking at as high as a 6th place finish. After UVic, there is a cluster of teams that are going to be very close on Saturday.
10. Alberta: Finally, we see where this team stands. They had a good run at Stewart Cup, although probably not what they were hoping. The West is strong this year, and this team comes into CIS as the number 4 ranked CanWest team. Weikum, Ostapowich, and Leboeuf need to pack run and get into the top 20 if this squad wants to be top 5. Carver stepped up at Stewart cup and gave Da Bears another guy capable of a good placing, but the fifth man was way too far back. Some of their usual suspects ran uncharacteristically slow at Stewart Cup, so if everything is okay health-wise, this team has the potential to pull a few upsets. The 6-11 teams are incredibly tight; a team like UWO, who we have 11th right now, can actually move up to 6th or 7th if they get some great runs. Conversely, if a group like Alberta has an off day, they can very easily drop right out of the top ten.
Teams left off with a chance to upset:
Mac: On the surface, their OUA performance looked bad; however, Yorke had a bad day. With him up to his usual form, this team actually could’ve been 3rd in the conference. A big day from a couple of athletes and Mac could move well into the top 10.
UWO: Not a great day at OUAs, although O’Neil appears due for another AC run. This squad was just off of Toronto and Queen’s, although their performances are trending down. If this squad can do the unthinkable and actually run better at CIS than the Western International, they too, can move into the top 10. Guelph should watch out for brash, young Brent Smith during the opening kilometer.
Concordia: This squad has been getting better each year and is led by CIS ROY hopeful Colle. He was a DNS at QSSF, but his early season form indicates he’s got the ability to be an AC. Noel-Hodge looks like a top 25 guy and could help lead this squad to a top 10.
Individuals:
Tier 1: Christie, Pieterson, Wiebe, Baghdad, Brunsting, Boorsma, Brett
Tier 2: Weston, Gerych, Doubravsky, Parrott, Wray, Poulin-Cadavius
Tier 3: McCarron, Mallie, O’Neil, Baiton, Cloutier, Childs, Marin, Snider, Del Monte, Keller, Colle
Individual Champion: This is a very hard pick, especially with so many Guelph guys up at the top which gives them an advantage, but we are calling a three-way battle between Wiebe, Brunsting, and Boorsma. Boorsma is probably the most talented of the bunch, so we give him a nod for the win.
Darkhorse: Gerych
ROY: Colle, Baiton, and Nixon are the top candidates. Baiton will take it. Without having ever seen him run, we’re guessing that he’s a mudder, something that will likely come in handy at the Fort.
