OFSAA Worst Predictions-- Own Up!

[oldster]

Every year, posters to this board spend months making OFSAA X-C predictions without ever really revisiting them after the fact. I realize all of this discussion is in the spirit of fun and friendly rivalry; but, in this same spirit of fun, I suggest that the predictors themselves start lining up for some shaming over their bad calls, especially in cases where the ratio of bluster, certainty, and feigned authority turned out to be grossly disproportional to the accuracy of the prediction. Sure, we could all go back over pages of posts looking for the worst prognostications ourselves; but, I'd prefer to see who has the balls to stand up and say: "Actually, I had no idea what I was talking about and could not have been more wrong in my calls."

Who's first?

Note: There should be a special category for anyone who called for young Woodfine to finish any worse than 2nd in the senior race. In fact, if you called him to lose at all (i.e. for any reason except the flu or some other unforeseen circumstance) then you know far less about running than think you do; or, your judgment was overcome by wishful thinking!

[xc4ever]

Centennial Senior Boys for fourth was a little presumptuous but the did get 11th alot better than people thought they would and there fourth guy had a bad day he should have been top 100 which would have made them fourth but it was a bad predrection but look out for these guys next year with all top 4 returning

[ianham]

the owner of the Jeff Stone preds? ...c'mon. there was no way. and just letting you know, he had the look of pure fear in his eyes being in the lead group after 2k. maybe the thought of what the hell am i doing here came to mind.

[slapchop]

I've always put T-Wood 2nd, mostly because I thought Smith would step it up and put it all on the line (I think he had some kind of flu, the massey team got hit by swine). That was a very commanding race from start to finish on Woodfine's part, I seriously think he was playing games with the result observers of tnfnorth by holding himself back in all fo his races. With that, I don't think it was outrageous at all to have him listed 2nd. Paul Janikowsky shocked us all too, having not won a race all season and coming out with a 2nd not terribly far off Woodfine.

[pmac]

Nov 8, 2009 13:33:46 GMT -5 ianham said:

the owner of the Jeff Stone preds? ...c'mon. there was no way. and just letting you know, he had the look of pure fear in his eyes being in the lead group after 2k. maybe the thought of what the hell am i doing here came to mind.

Did you even read the initial post in the thread? Own up for any of your own poor predictions and let others condemn themselves. Besides, it was plain to anybody with even a remote sense of humour that the Jeff Stone predictions were out of humour, nothing else.


I for one made no predictions. I apologize for frequenting this board for any other reason than to call the local association champ for a top 5 finish in the only race that grants one more glory than the Olympics, the coveted OFSAA, regardless of what anyone else in province has done.

[lukesteer93]

I had some spot on predictions, but there was one that i was really off on. I though Thomas Kellar would've been closer to top 15, top 10, rather 60th ish. I'm not completely sure if I actually called that on tnf north, but i'll own up.

[knights]

i called my brother for 20-25th in junior boys. he was 6th.

i called woodfine out of the medals cause i thought he was burnt out. i'm reminded that that guy has never backed down, and never will back down, against any field. he is quiet, but more confident in his own abilities than anyone i've ever met.

when asked if he thought he could run away from that field?
yeah, i was pretty confident i could.
when asked how he did it?
i just ran hard.

it's a simple practice. train, gain confidence, and then JUST DO THE JOB.

i didn't think joanna brown was going to be as run fit as she is.
two triathletes on top yesterday and i couldn't even consider the Bytown sweep before hand.
shame on me.

thanks oldster. seriously.

[im]

Oldster, why would calling Woodfine to finish anywhere but first be a bad call?

In fact, Andrew De Groots time at Pre-OFSAA was four seconds faster than Woodfine's winning time...if not for getting hit with the flu last week, he may have given Woodfine a run for his money. Woodfine may have still won, but it could have been a lot closer.

Maybe your knowledge isn't as great as you think if you thought Woodfine would walk away with it. If you knew DeGroot maybe you could say he had a legitimate chance to win barring, and i quote (i.e. for any reason except the flu or some other unforeseen circumstance)

[theking]

Nov 8, 2009 14:35:53 GMT -5 pmac said:

Nov 8, 2009 13:33:46 GMT -5 ianham said:

the owner of the Jeff Stone preds? ...c'mon. there was no way. and just letting you know, he had the look of pure fear in his eyes being in the lead group after 2k. maybe the thought of what the hell am i doing here came to mind.

Did you even read the initial post in the thread? Own up for any of your own poor predictions and let others condemn themselves. Besides, it was plain to anybody with even a remote sense of humour that the Jeff Stone predictions were out of humour, nothing else.

glad someone relized it was out of humour, mind you I did think with a good race he could've sneaked into the top 10, oh well, stone ofsaa 1500m win

[B-rads]

Nov 8, 2009 17:28:28 GMT -5 im said:

Oldster, why would calling Woodfine to finish anywhere but first be a bad call?

In fact, Andrew De Groots time at Pre-OFSAA was four seconds faster than Woodfine's winning time...if not for getting hit with the flu last week, he may have given Woodfine a run for his money. Woodfine may have still won, but it could have been a lot closer.

Maybe your knowledge isn't as great as you think if you thought Woodfine would walk away with it. If you knew DeGroot maybe you could say he had a legitimate chance to win barring, and i quote (i.e. for any reason except the flu or some other unforeseen circumstance)

thomas devries had a terrible race he would have been up there too

[cda]

I called Benoit Boulay FTW, boy is there egg on my face.

[ianham]

Nov 8, 2009 18:13:11 GMT -5 theking said:

Nov 8, 2009 14:35:53 GMT -5 pmac said:

Did you even read the initial post in the thread? Own up for any of your own poor predictions and let others condemn themselves. Besides, it was plain to anybody with even a remote sense of humour that the Jeff Stone predictions were out of humour, nothing else.

glad someone relized it was out of humour, mind you I did think with a good race he could've sneaked into the top 10, oh well, stone ofsaa 1500m win

I never knew a "suggestion" now means an obligation, but Mr. pmac Sir, I was definitely being sarcastic about being serious if that makes any sense. Still, he had no business being in the lead group. Oh and theking? Multiple accounts? You're cool.

[theking]

hahaha hey now at least im not as bad as db, 3000m,db3000m or daniel bright. and i only have two because certain people dont like their athletes throwing out some funny preds on msg boards. and my other account is my name so its not like its some way of hiding anyhting.

[s.bisson]

i had called jordan collison to finish higher than he did. while he still had a respectable finish i thought he was going to be top 8.

[ianham]

Nov 8, 2009 19:04:54 GMT -5 theking said:

hahaha hey now at least im not as bad as db, 3000m,db3000m or daniel bright. and i only have two because certain people dont like their athletes throwing out some funny preds on msg boards. and my other account is my name so its not like its some way of hiding anyhting.

Hah. Point taken. x2.

[coachc]

Nov 8, 2009 17:28:28 GMT -5 im said:

Oldster, why would calling Woodfine to finish anywhere but first be a bad call?

In fact, Andrew De Groots time at Pre-OFSAA was four seconds faster than Woodfine's winning time...if not for getting hit with the flu last week, he may have given Woodfine a run for his money. Woodfine may have still won, but it could have been a lot closer.

Maybe your knowledge isn't as great as you think if you thought Woodfine would walk away with it. If you knew DeGroot maybe you could say he had a legitimate chance to win barring, and i quote (i.e. for any reason except the flu or some other unforeseen circumstance)

I would have to agree with im. Anybody who was at Pre OFSAA and saw the ease with which Degroot handled everyone that day as well as how relaxed ho looked the entire way would know that if healthy it would have been a very good race, Tristen would not have been a sure thing by any stretch of the mind. In fact as already stated Degroot won with a better time in worse conditions and by a greater margin of victory at Pre OFSAA. Too bad he and Daryl were a little off , it would have been an awesome race.

[thefuture]

i put chris moyer for 2nd and he came 69th!! devon elijah for 7th and he dropped out i had abdi jamma for 6th and he dropped out i had me chance jones for 5th and i came 28th. i think i by far had the worst predictions

[xc4ever]

that's why they call it pre ofsaa because it really doesnt matter look at woodfine and syndenham ofsaa is what counts no if ans or buts show up dont throw up

[henry25]

i called Woodfine for 4th and Denault for 19th, boy was i wrong. Also, i called Devries, Arango and Stone too high. However, i was close with Janikowski (3rd, came 2nd), Boychuk (7th, came 8th), Kowalsky(8th came 6th), Proudfoot (9th came 7th), Asseltine (20th, came 22nd), and Collison (dead on) .. also props to Bierema, he really brought it yesterday with his 17th place finish

[limestonemiler]

Only surprise for me was Denault. That kid's got one helluva spring ahead him, assuming he stays healthy.

Oct 22, 2009 11:56:14 GMT -5 limestonemiler said:

T Wood
DG
Hosier
Jani
D Rail

[oldster]

Nov 8, 2009 17:28:28 GMT -5 im said:

Oldster, why would calling Woodfine to finish anywhere but first be a bad call?

In fact, Andrew De Groots time at Pre-OFSAA was four seconds faster than Woodfine's winning time...if not for getting hit with the flu last week, he may have given Woodfine a run for his money. Woodfine may have still won, but it could have been a lot closer.

Maybe your knowledge isn't as great as you think if you thought Woodfine would walk away with it. If you knew DeGroot maybe you could say he had a legitimate chance to win barring, and i quote (i.e. for any reason except the flu or some other unforeseen circumstance)

Talk all you want about the flu this and pre-OFSAA that, but there was no way this kid was going to lose when it counted (although I allowed that it was a little more reasonable to call him for second, in case someone had an amazing one-off performance and he was a little flat). The facts are pretty simple:

-He ran 14:45 in an all-comers meet, in mid-summer, in 30 degree heat. No one else in this field had come near that in perfect conditions.

-During the school season, running a nothing meet, and winning by a minute or so, he ran 8:27, with a 30 sec last 200.

-He did this during, and just out of, the 10th grade.

-He didn't even win in the 9th grade, suggesting a really rapid upward developmental trajectory that was not going to slow down quickly (think Mo Ahmed here). A kid like this can get better literally from one week to the next.

-Pre-OFSAA was just that-- PRE-OFSAA. A properly prepared runner would have been training through that one. I imagine he was, yet he was still right in there. And times in X-C mean nothing, even on the same course from one week to another. Even very subtle changes in weather and course conditions tend to have big effects on time.

-In the actual race, he put 10 extra secs on second place in the last 5mins-- from the front, no less. This was a very easy win for him. In another week, as he continues to recover from his busy tri season, he'd probably be 30 secs up.

All-tolled, there was very little chance this guy was ever going to lose this race. At 16 years old, he is simply one another level from anyone else in Ontario high school, and he is moving further beyond the pack almost as we speak. From now till he graduates, it will take nothing short of a small disaster for him to lose am important race to another high school athlete. The chance to beat him was this fall, and that has now passed.

[im]

Your the one who brought up the flu as an excuse for why Woodfine may lose . I guess if anyone gets the flu and doesn't run well they are a wimp, but if Woodfine gets the flu and loses that's o.k.

Woodfine's credentials and races he has run you mention for why he would win, yet when someone else gives times and races run for an athlete their "irrelevant"

Quit giving excuses for Woodfine, then turning around and bashing any one else who defends another athlete.

[im]

And that's a bold statement when you say "There is no way this kid was going to lose when it counted"

Haven't you learned anything watching El Guerrouj take three Olympic's to finally win the 1500m title. Nothing is a guarantee!

[philippides]

tristan is good but I can not see him winning the 1500m at OFSAA this year

[oldster]

Nov 8, 2009 21:26:02 GMT -5 im said:

Your the one who brought up the flu as an excuse for why Woodfine may lose . I guess if anyone gets the flu and doesn't run well they are a wimp, but if Woodfine gets the flu and loses that's o.k.

Woodfine's credentials and races he has run you mention for why he would win, yet when someone else gives times and races run for an athlete their "irrelevant"

Quit giving excuses for Woodfine, then turning around and bashing any one else who defends another athlete.

I meant if Woodfine had the flu a couple of days before the race, not a week or more before. Plenty of runners (including possibly Woodfine himself, for all I know) have had the flu this fall, including 3 of the four Sydenham boys, and they were fine on Saturday. And I didn't call anyone a wimp. It's not helpful to put words in people's mouths.

And the point is, no one actually had the unambiguous credentials Woodfine had going in. Certain performances, like his 3 and 5 from last year, showed he is on a different level than everyone else at the moment. Again, times in X-C mean very little, even on the same course.

As for the maturity thing, we're talking about 16-18 year olds here, not 14-15 year olds. Virtually everyone in the senior boys race is more or less fully grown. He was a strong kid in grade nine (when he didn't even win); but, he's gotten even stronger since then, so clearly he wasn't fully mature in grade 9, or even last year, in spite of being mature looking.

As for the training hard thing: He is actually old enough now to be training hard, and he trains hard. This is simply another reason he will be hard to beat.

I have no stake in any of this. I just know what I see.

[ronb]

Is there any chance that Mr. Woodfine will be a runner, after Grade 12, as compared to a triathlete? This is a totally innocent question, but I do see a pattern emerging here...
Regardless, excellent run Tristan !

[lukesteer93]

i'm a close friend of tristan's and i'd like to clear some things up concerning his beatability and his training.

the relative ease with which degroot won with at pre ofsaa was mentioned, and it should be known that tristan ran a tempo pace, so it's probably unadvisable to use that race as a comparison.

smith and degroot having the flu was also mentioned. while that may be a handicap, you would also think that not beign able to train for the last month of xc would be a handicap of a slarger size. tristan has.. er.. quite the penchant for going hard. early this october it caught up to him, and he was forced to cut back to at first no running, then later on a couple easy runs a week. now that xc season is done, he's been sentenced to 5 weeks of easy swimming. talk all you want about a spot of the flu that EVERYONE in ontario was hit by, a month of little or no training right before ofsaa is a deal breaker. yet he still wins by 15 seconds. it's no coincidence that first race he runs all out happens to be significantly faster than anything he's done so far this year..

but really what i want to get to is, why the hating? he's not god, but he's a highly talented athlete who is a joy to watch. unfortunately people like me have to compete against him, but thats the nature of the game. shouldn't we feel blessed to have a such a promising athlete in our midst, and instead of tearing him down becuase he's "not god" and could've been beaten if others didn't have the flu, be supporting him? i for one would rather stand behind tristan. being an athlete in canada is retarded enough at time (see AC). our top athletes need all the support they can get.

that's just my 2 cents.

[oldster]

Nov 8, 2009 21:47:09 GMT -5 slapchop said:

I'm just going to say - Tristan Woodfine isn't god, and you're making it sound like he's invincible. I'll assure you one thing, he may be lucky enough to have had a highschool sweep (xcluding gr 9.) but his grade.10 perfomances are irrelevant to anything to come in future years. If I'm not mistaken, he does train quite a bit, and he has been at it for a while now, if I'm not mistaken, he is most likely at full maturity. The way you assume things, why wouldn't Eamonn Kichuk come out and defeat Woodfine? His PB is 8:43 ina summer of gr.9. There is no way you can sit there and say they are at different levels of maturity at their age.
My point: He isn't the first and he isn't the last. Some have all of their luck with puberty while others don't, Mo Ahmed wasn't fully developed in gr.9 or 10. Come Gr.10 summer, he gets good. Not only that, the next year he gets even better and nearly breaks 30:00 for 10k
That is the difference between very good and unbeatable in Canada.
The world stage is another story obviously, put one of those east africans in Canada, and then you will truly see "unbeatable".

Whoa there fella! The issue is simply: Was it a good call, all things considered, and based on the hardest of facts, to pick Woodfine for worse than 1st or second? Being a "god" or an East African has nothing to do with it.

Also, I realize the boy has always been big, and that his development is a little precocious; but, the fact is, he won't have to get much better than he is right now to be very good, and he is still improving. To compare him to an overdeveloped grade 9 is not quite accurate. Plus, he clearly still has a tremendous appetite for hard racing and training, which is what one likes to see in a 16 year old.

Finally, that Woodine is on a different level than the rest of the boys doesn't mean they should be conceding anything to him. It does mean, however, that they have to face facts in terms of what they're dealing with before they can have any chance of beating him. (And I think he could win the 1500 too-- on strength alone-- if he chose to train for it instead of the tri. The way he can run solo low 60s at the end of hard 3ks shows he could string together some 60-61s, which is usually good enough to win OFSAA 1500, especially with a heat thrown in there).

Ron, I would love to see this kid become a runner in the future, but my sense is that his heart is set on triathlon. He's a member of "Generation W" (for Whitfield), so it's understandable.

[09]

I can't take this any longer. Oldster and Steer, I couldn't agree with you more. What more does this kid have to do, to prove to these people that he IS the best runner in Ontario and deserves all the credit we are giving him. We are not saying is God, but that despite what other people think, Tristan Woodfine has enough talent to win OFSAA on strength alone. How else would would a kid go a whole month of 1 to 2 easy runs a week and still win OFSAA. Only a tremendously gifted athlete can do something like that. He's ran the fastest times in Ontario, beat everyone in Ontario, and is the OFSAA XC Champion. He deserves more respect than what you are giving him.

Woodfine was also probably one of the only runners to have worn a poppy on his singlet as well. The kid has class too.

[CMosesRun]

1. Tristan Woodfine (Need I Say More Than His Name?! lol) (CAME 1st)
2. Paul Janikowski (Midget XC Champ, Junior XC Champ, 6th As A Gr.11 In Senior XC [Top Gr.11]) (CAME 2nd)
3. Stephen Hosier (Midget 3km Champ, Junior 3km Champ, 3rd As A Gr.11 In Senior 3km [Top Gr.11]) (CAME 11th)
4. Andrew Degroot (7th Last Year) (CAME 3rd)
5. Daryl Smith (8th Last Year) (CAME 5th)

My Preds (Posted on Sept 22nd) before the season even started! Other than Hosier coming 11th, they are pretty much dead on!!