Grade 11 Success at OFSAA

[borisp]

So I was bored so I did some calculations on how grade 11's do at OFSAA. I took the top 10 Junior Boys from each of the last 6 years and tracked how they did the following year. Here is what I found. All the data is from Sportstats (except OFSAA 2004). NR means I couldn't find the athlete in the results their grade 11 year. I'm sure I made a mistake or two. Feel free to correct me.

14 out of 60 (23%) of the top 10 juniors didn't qualify their first year as a senior
4 out of 18 (22%) top 3 juniors didn't qualify their first year as a senior
Of the 46 who did qualify, 10 (22%) were top 10 their first year as a senior

The most grade 11's ever to make top 10 was 3 in 2004.
Grade 11's have done progressively worse at OFSAA over the last 6 years (maybe more victory lappers?)
Only 2 grade 11's (Mohammed Ahmed and Alan Bret) placed better in grade 11 than in grade 10
Only 3 grade 11's (Mo, Alan and Mike Woods) have won medals as grade 11s (1 gold, 2 bronze)
The average position decrease of junior champions is 14.4 spots when they become seniors, 1 of them didn't qualify
The average position decrease of junior runner ups is 11.3 spots when they become seniors, 3 of them didn't qualify
The average position decrease of junior 3rd place finishers is 7.8 spots when they become seniors



Here is the actual data
(The data lists the grade 10 JB position, name, grade 11 SB position and change of each athlete)

07 OFSAA JB, 08 OFSAA SB, Change
----------------------------------------------------------
1st Paul JANIKOWSKI 6 -5
2nd Michael PESCE NR
3rd Andrew KOWALSKY 11 -8
4th Stephen HOSIER NR
5th Merid SELESHI 61 -56
6th Yoseph GREGREZGI NR
7th John WYNANDS 138 -131
8th Luca GEISER 37 -29
9th Paul LAMARRA 62 -53
10th James DENNY NR
Average Change -47

06 OFSAA JB, 07 OFSAA SB, Change
----------------------------------------------------------
1st Daryl SMITH 9 -8
2nd John Paul MALETTE 16 -14
3rd Ian DONALD 12 -9
4th Jeremy RAE 17 -13
5th Zain AHMED 50 -45
6th Mohammed AHMED 1 5
7th Trent SAYERS NR
8th Benoit BOULAY 98 -90
9th Bryan WOODHOUSE 140 -131
10th Phil RIBEIRO NR
Average Change -38.125

05 OFSAA JB, 06 OFSAA SB, Change
----------------------------------------------------------
1st Will MCFALL 40 -39
2nd Nick MCGRAW 11 -9
3rd Jacob SMITH 21 -18
4th Fraser KEGEL 9 -5
5th Antun PAVELIC 33 -28
6th Mike DALZIEL NR
7th Thomas MORRISON 7 0
8th Connor HAMMOND NR
9th Kevin WRIGHT 34 -25
10th Mark DUFOUR 42 -32
Average Change -19.5

04 OFSAA JB, 05 OFSAA SB, Change
----------------------------------------------------------
1st Matt Leeder 5 -4
2nd Matt Kennedy NR
3rd Matthew HUGHES 10 -7
4th Matthew BRUCE 16 -12
5th Kevin Moore 12 -7
6th Matthew Walters 15 -9
7th Scott Innes 19 -12
8th Tyler Pettes 14 -6
9th Jacob Milligan 65 -56
10th PHIL ROBSON NR
Average Change -14.125

03 OFSAA JB, 04 OFSAA SB, Change
----------------------------------------------------------
1st Kyle Boorsma 17 -16
2nd Michael Anderson 13 -11
3rd Mark Henshawe 8 -5
4th Matt Hulse 12 -8
5th Allan Bret 3 +2
6th Mark Silverstre 7 -1
7th William Komer 22 -15
8th Walid Berkhedele 25 -17
9th Robert Koziarski 82 -73
10th Matt Butters NR
Average Change -16

02 OFSAA JB, 03 OFSAA SB, Change
----------------------------------------------------------
1st Braden Novakowski NR
2nd Jay Morrill NR
3rd Mike Woods 3 0
4th Nick Corrigan 34 -30
5th Lucas Mcaeney 18 -13
6th Ryan Finn 14 -8
7th Scott Burley 37 -30
8th Rocky Robitaille 24 -16
9th Wesley George NR
10th Robbie Watson 11 -1
Average Change -14

[henry25]

interesting stats, we seem to be progressively getting worse lol. How long did this take?

[borisp]

Not that long. I wasted a ton of time trying to make the data look pretty. I am guessing that part of the reason that grade 11's are getting worse is that more SB are staying an extra year in highschool. It is just a hunch.

[bystander]

What might be just as enlightening is to track what happens to these guys into College/University and whether they progress to a significant level as Senior athletes.
The problem with all of this OFSAA focus is losing sight of the long-term development of athletes. One assumes that these are talented runners (or why are they placing in the top 10 at OFSAA), so one can also presume that they might (although there are certainly legitimate reasons for having "problems" in developing long-term) expect to do well in the following years down the road.

[ronb]

Bystander, that would be a great project for someone. Get a spreadsheet with the names of the top OFSSA runners from Grades 10/11/12, and see where they are in a few years.
Matt Norminton's new organization would probably fund that

[henry25]

Oct 24, 2009 11:28:48 GMT -5 bystander said:

What might be just as enlightening is to track what happens to these guys into College/University and whether they progress to a significant level as Senior athletes.
The problem with all of this OFSAA focus is losing sight of the long-term development of athletes. One assumes that these are talented runners (or why are they placing in the top 10 at OFSAA), so one can also presume that they might (although there are certainly legitimate reasons for having "problems" in developing long-term) expect to do well in the following years down the road.

that sounds like an awesome idea but it would be beyond difficult trying to find out where all these people went to school, a lot of them probably in the states somewhere, and trying to get your hands on the all the results, etc. If this was pulled off though, I would be pretty impressed, and we could really see what Canada's distance running future may be!

[pmac]

Oct 24, 2009 20:07:18 GMT -5 henry25 said:

Oct 24, 2009 11:28:48 GMT -5 bystander said:

What might be just as enlightening is to track what happens to these guys into College/University and whether they progress to a significant level as Senior athletes.
The problem with all of this OFSAA focus is losing sight of the long-term development of athletes. One assumes that these are talented runners (or why are they placing in the top 10 at OFSAA), so one can also presume that they might (although there are certainly legitimate reasons for having "problems" in developing long-term) expect to do well in the following years down the road.

that sounds like an awesome idea but it would be beyond difficult trying to find out where all these people went to school, a lot of them probably in the states somewhere, and trying to get your hands on the all the results, etc. If this was pulled off though, I would be pretty impressed, and we could really see what Canada's distance running future may be!

See Bystander's posts in the thread regarding Canadians in the NCAA if you have any doubts about whether or not this could be pulled off....(not that I'm nominating you to do so Bystander, just using you as an example of people with a passion for the sport who could seemingly do this.)

[ronb]

I am nominating you, Bystander...pmac, do you second the nomination?

[pmac]

I'm not looking to put too much pressure on the guy considering he's likely got other things in his life that take priority, so while stepping short of nominating him, I will agree that he's likely the best guy on the board to do the job.

[ronb]

Oct 24, 2009 22:08:51 GMT -5 pmac said:

I'm not looking to put too much pressure on the guy considering he's likely got other things in his life that take priority, so while stepping short of nominating him, I will agree that he's likely the best guy on the board to do the job.

Would you like some syrup with that waffle?

[pmac]

Oct 24, 2009 22:14:58 GMT -5 ronb said:

Oct 24, 2009 22:08:51 GMT -5 pmac said:

I'm not looking to put too much pressure on the guy considering he's likely got other things in his life that take priority, so while stepping short of nominating him, I will agree that he's likely the best guy on the board to do the job.

Would you like some syrup with that waffle?

Haha, fair enough Ron. Consider it seconded.

[ronb]

So, Mr. Bystander.....it is duly noted that you have been officially nominated and seconded, to do ......something. Do you accept this august (even though it's october) appointment???
Apparently, you are da man...